Photo Credit: kemhan.go.id

President Prabowo Subianto's recent diplomatic maneuvers have thrust Indonesia into the center of a complex geopolitical narrative surrounding the South China Sea. Following his inaugural tour, which included a pivotal visit to China, Prabowo has initiated a nuanced approach to international relations that seeks to balance economic interests, regional diplomacy, and national sovereignty.

The controversy emerged from a joint statement issued during Prabowo's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which seemingly suggested an agreement on "joint development in areas of overlapping claims." This language immediately raised alarm bells among Indonesian academics, diplomatic analysts, and neighboring countries concerned about territorial sovereignty.

Historically, Indonesia has consistently rejected China's expansive "nine-dash line" claim, which encompasses significant maritime territories. The 2016 international arbitration tribunal had already ruled that China's territorial claims had no legal basis under international law—a decision Indonesia had previously supported. Therefore, the ambiguous language in the joint statement represented a potential shift in Indonesia's long-standing diplomatic position.

Recognizing the potential diplomatic fallout, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly moved to clarify the nation's stance. They emphasized that the maritime cooperation with China does not equate to recognizing the nine-dash line and that Indonesia continues to maintain its sovereignty in the North Natuna Sea. Deputy Foreign Minister Arif Havas Oegroseno explicitly stated that there are no overlapping claims between the Natuna Sea and Chinese waters.

Prabowo's approach represents a departure from traditional Indonesian foreign policy. Unlike his predecessors who maintained a more ASEAN-centric perspective, he is pursuing a pragmatic strategy of bilateral engagement with global powers. This approach involves maintaining friendly relations with both the United States and China while attempting to leverage Indonesia's strategic position.

The President's diplomatic strategy is multifaceted. During his visit to the United States, Prabowo explicitly stated that Indonesia wants cooperation with all parties while maintaining its sovereignty. This suggests a careful balancing act—seeking economic opportunities and diplomatic relationships without compromising national interests.

However, the strategy is not without risks. Closer ties with China, particularly regarding maritime territories, could potentially alienate other ASEAN nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, who are also involved in territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
Political scientists Radityo Dharmaputra and Ahmad Rizky M. Umar have noted that Prabowo's foreign policy represents a shift towards more dynamic bilateral engagement. By deepening ties with China—Indonesia's largest trading partner and foreign investor—Prabowo is positioning Indonesia to potentially benefit from economic opportunities while maintaining strategic flexibility.

Experts suggest that Indonesia should continue to reaffirm its commitment to international maritime law, protect its Exclusive Economic Zones, and strengthen regional partnerships. The ultimate test of Prabowo's diplomatic approach will be maintaining Indonesia's independence and sovereignty amid the complex dynamics of great power competition.
 

Sources: 

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/Active-diplomacy-of-Indonesia-s-new-president-carries-its-own-risks

https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/has-prabowo-changed-indonesias-stance-south-china-sea

https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/indonesias-south-china-sea-strategy-pragmatism-or-concession/ 

https://asiatoday.id/read/south-china-sea-controversy-this-is-president-prabowos-attitude

https://www.kemhan.go.id/2024/04/01/bertemu-presiden-china-xi-jinping-menhan-prabowo-bahas-penguatan-kemitraan-strategis-dengan-china.html